Field guide
Advanced statistics
A guide to pace, efficiency, context, and the limits of descriptive numbers.
10 min read · Updated August 2026
01
Efficiency before totals
Per-possession or per-play efficiency helps separate quality from tempo. Raw scoring can overstate fast teams and understate slow, efficient teams.
02
Opponent and game context
Strength of schedule, home advantage, rest, travel, injuries, lineup roles, and game state can change what a season average means. A number detached from context is not analysis.
03
Samples and recency
Recent data can reflect current form but contains fewer observations. Full-season data is steadier but may include obsolete lineups or roles. Use explicit weighting rather than whichever window supports a preferred conclusion.
04
Correlation is not a mechanism
A relationship may be driven by opponent quality, selection effects, or chance. Prefer features with a plausible causal path and test performance out of sample.