Field guide
Risk assessment
A pre-decision checklist for model, market, data, and personal risk.
7 min read · Updated August 2026
01
Model risk
Ask how the probability was estimated, whether the sample matches today’s game, and which assumptions could fail. Confidence is not immunity from model error.
02
Market risk
Prices move, limits differ, and thin markets can be noisy. Confirm that a displayed price is actually available and that the market rules match the analysis.
03
Data risk
Check timestamps, team mapping, injury status, and feed completeness. A correct formula applied to stale or mismatched inputs still produces a bad answer.
04
Personal risk
Consider whether a loss would affect essentials, mood, relationships, or behavior. If the answer is yes, do not place the wager and seek support where appropriate.